As 1985 once again highlighted, campaigns matter

Premier Frank Miller finally called the election in late March choosing May 2 as voting day.

The campaign began with a strong performance from Liberal leader David Peterson, who seized the opportunity to position his party as the only one not beholden to special interests. Peterson’s message was clear and consistent: the Liberals represented a modern, inclusive alternative to the entrenched Tory establishment, appealing directly to voters’ desire for change and a better future.

Campaign strategies and leadership style

David Peterson’s Liberal campaign was highly focused and visually cohesive, always set against the backdrop of the party’s red logo and the rising sun motif. He consistently contrasted his vision with the “out of touch” nature of Miller’s Conservatives, promising renewal and urging voters to embrace a new direction for Ontario. The Liberals’ strategy was to identify issues, highlight Conservative shortcomings, and ask voters to change the status quo. A key part of that request was focusing on issues facing the growing share of the provincial population that lived in urban not rural Ontario. The party focused its pitch on the province’s growing immigrant population, as well as women and younger voters.

Frank Miller’s campaign emphasized continuity, stability, and job creation, particularly for small businesses, while promising to improve social services. However, his approach was rooted in the status quo, reflecting polling that suggested voters wanted both continuity and some change, especially on economic issues. Miller’s leadership style was more traditional and rural, lacking the modern appeal of Peterson, and his campaign was tightly controlled by handlers wary of gaffes and media scrutiny. The Progressive Conservative campaign was also hurt by the decision of those around Miller to sideline the strategists known as the Big Blue Machine, that had won four elections for Davis. The internal tensions that created within Progressive Conservative ranks handicapped the campaign.

New Democratic Party  leader Bob Rae campaign initially focused on five key issues—unemployment, government waste, environmental pollution, high taxes, and challenges facing working women—blaming the Conservatives for these problems. However, Rae’s messaging was criticized for lacking specific solutions and failing to differentiate the NDP as a government-in-waiting. The NDP appeared more intent on surpassing the Liberals as the Official Opposition than on presenting a credible alternative government. To some it seemed they had accepted the common wisdom at the outset of the campaign that the Progressive Conservatives would rack up another victory and continue the dynasty.

Key issues and public sentiment

Several issues emerged as central to the campaign:

Originally a commitment made by Davis the previous June without consulting his caucus or cabinet, the decision to fund fully separate schools from grade 11 to grade 13 (pubic funding already existed to the end of grade 10) became the most divisive issue in the campaign. It split Conservatives even in cabinet while alienating the Conservatives’ traditional Protestant base without attracting new Catholic support. Both Liberals and NDP had supported the policy, but comments during the campaign by Miller suggested a possible lack of commitment to implementing Davis’ announcement. The manner inn which the decision was imposed by Davis and the requirement from Davis that PC leadership candidates not raise the issue while running to replace him additionally  fuelled discontent.

The environment and women’s issues – seen by some as  “sleeper” issues – gained traction during the campaign, catching the Conservatives off guard. The mishandling by the Conservatives of a PCB spill on a northern Ontario highway gave the Liberals a chance to stress the Conservatives were out of touch with the growing public concern about environmental issues. That further highlighted the Conservative disconnect with urban and progressive voters and strengthen the Liberal message that it was time for renewal and new thinking.

Leadership and media relations also played a role in the election outcome as Miller refused to participate in the televised leader’s debate and complained he was being muzzled by his handlers fearful that Miller might misspeak if let loose. His “peekaboo campaign” became a liability, painting him as evasive and out of touch. In contrast, Peterson and Rae were more accessible and willing to engage with the public and media.

Campaign dynamics and shifting momentum

As the campaign progressed, several factors contributed to the erosion of Conservative support

Declining PC poll numbers emerged by mid-April, suggesting  a significant drop in Conservative support, from 52% to 47%. The public, once confident of a Conservative victory, began to question the inevitability of the outcome and whether the dynasty could actually be coming to an end.

At the same time, Miller’s right-leaning approach and focus on fiscal restraint alienated then Davis supporters who had formed  the party’s moderate “Red Tory” wing, producing cracks in the coalition that won Davis four straight elections.

The media had also turned against the Tories as well, sensing the public desire for change. With about a week to go before election day, “the Kingston Whig-Standard printed a front page editorial ‘100 reasons why you should not vote Conservative.’ The Toronto Star on April 24 called for a Liberal government. The Globe and Mail followed the next day with ‘Time for renewal’.”

If that wasn’t enough, on April 25 Toronto’s Lewis Garnsworthy, the  province’s Anglican Archbishop attracted province-wide headlines by attacking the way Davis had imposed separate-school funding. He bluntly stated “this is the way Hitler changed education in Germany . . . by decree.” There no consensus about whether those comments changed many votes but it put the issue back in front the electorate at a time when Conservatives wished it would disappear.

Election results and aftermath

The election night saw dramatic swings, with the Liberals at times leading in seat count. Ultimately, the Progressive Conservatives managed to secure a minority government with 52 seats—a loss of 18 from the previous election. The Liberals surged to 48 seats, gaining 14, while the NDP increased their share to 25 seats, up from 21. Notably, the Liberals won the popular vote by a margin of 34,921 votes, capturing 37.9% compared to the Conservatives’ 36.9% and the NDP’s 23.8%.

The results set the stage for the negotiations between the Liberals and the NDP that would intimately end the Progressive Conservatives 42 years in power in Ontario.